Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Interim Report Review: Interim Report Performance Meets Expectations Direct Sales Expected in Second Half

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Interim Report Review: Interim Report Performance Meets Expectations Direct Sales Expected in Second Half

Guizhou Moutai (600519) 2019 Interim Report Review: Interim Report Performance Meets Expectations Direct Sales Expected in Second Half
Event: The company announced that it achieved total operating income of 411 in the first half of 2019.73 trillion, ten years +16.80%; net profit attributable to mother is 199.51 ppm, +26 for ten years.56%.Among them, 2019Q2 achieved total operating income of 186.9.2 billion, +10 in ten years.89%, achieving a net profit of 87.30 trillion, +20 for ten years.29%. The launch was accelerated at the end of the second quarter, and revenue growth was basically in line with expectations.The company achieved revenue of 394 in 2019H1.880,000 yuan, ten years +18.24%; Revenue of 178 in Q2 2019.44 trillion, affected by last year’s high base (+46.40%), the previous growth rate fell to 12.01%, performance basically in line with expectations.By quarter, in the first quarter, due to the increase in the Spring Festival investment and non-scalar increase, it achieved 22.21% growth.The growth rate improved in the second quarter, mainly due to the slow pace of the company’s launch.The front-end company vigorously arranged its distribution channels. In the first half of the year, there were a net reduction of 494 sauce and fragrance wine dealers, and about 6,000 tons of distribution changes were reset. This part of the replacement was due to the slow progress of direct sales, which replaced heavy volume.In order to ensure that the company meets the expected targets (14% -16% performance expectations), the company concentratedly put in 2000 tons in the middle and late June.It is estimated that the input amount confirmed in the second quarter statement is about 6,000 tons, and the overall input amount in the first half of the year is 1.5-1.Sales may increase slightly in June.In terms of product grades, Maotai and series wines should increase by 18 in the first half of the year.42% / 16.57%. In addition to the continuous growth of Moutai, the series has a high base last year (56.57%), still maintaining rapid growth, which also shows that the strategic layout and brand value of the series of wine has improved. Demand for high-end liquor is strong, and Moutai terminal prices are expected to remain stable during the Mid-Autumn Festival peak season.In the new round of consumption-driven liquor recovery cycle, the optional consumption attributes of liquor have weakened, premium liquor has been integrated, and the price of Maotai has been rising.According to grassroots research data, a large number of prices of Maotai have recently stabilized at 2,000 yuan, and the terminal price has reached as high as about 2450 yuan.Although the company accelerated its expansion at the end of the second quarter and stabilized the terminal price of Moutai to a certain extent, the mid-autumn festival peak season was switched and demand for high-end liquor was alternated. The price of Moutai Mid-Autumn Festival rose steadily. The product structure was upgraded and the operating efficiency improved, and the company’s profitability continued to increase.The company achieved net profit of 199 attributable to mother in 2019H1.51 ppm, +26 for ten years.56%; Net profit attributable to mothers was 87 in the second quarter of 2019.30 trillion, +20 for ten years.29%.The company’s gross profit / net margin was 91 in the first half of the year.87% / 53.68%, an increase of 0.92/3.01 cases; the sales expense ratio / administrative expense ratio decreased by 1.55/0.47pcts.The improvement of profitability is mainly due to the continuous improvement of the product structure. The increase in non-standard proportions such as the zodiac and boutiques promotes the company’s product structure to be further optimized, and the average price increases to increase gross profit.At the same time, the company’s operating efficiency is continuously improving.The company further continued to clean up and profitable sub-companies. The company plans to retain a brand strategy of 5 brands and 50 barcodes in 19 years. The number of products will be halved as early as 18 years. Brand slimming can provide room for company expenses.It is expected that the company’s product structure will continue to improve in the second half of the year, especially the direct sales volume will help the company’s profitability increase. In the second half of the year, it is expected that the volume of Moutai will increase, and the direct management is expected to increase. Under the deepening of channel reform, the company is likely to exceed the expected performance of 14% -16% in 19 years.The company expects to launch 3 in 19 years.1 initially, at least 10.7%, expected to be released in the first half of the year.5-1.6 samples, according to this calculation, sales growth rate will increase significantly in the second half of the year.In the meantime, the company’s 6,000 tons of distribution breakthroughs are expected to accelerate the launch of direct sales channels in the second half of the year, while another part uses non-standard products to improve the product structure.The company’s direct sales accounted for only 4 in the first half of the year.06%, a decrease of 3 units over the same period of the previous year, and the speed of advance was less than expected.However, in the past 4 months, the company has carried out a large-scale business group purchase and investment layout. It is expected that direct sales will accelerate in the second half of the year, and the proportion of direct sales in 19 years may be reset in 18 years.The 94% expansion has tripled to about 20%. The increase in direct sales has improved the ton price of products, which is expected to bring about an increase in revenue of about 10 billion yuan.The other part of the retreat is to increase non-standard delivery to improve product structure.The company plans to issue 3 in 19 years.1 Initially, about 1 was launched with the ordinary Feitian Moutai main dealer system.7 budget, 1 remaining.4 years are non-standard Moutai, such as ordinary flying Moutai and Zodiac, year, and boutique.In terms of volume and price, the incremental contribution in 2019 will be 10% -13%, and the increase in price contribution will be 3% -5%. We believe that the probability of Moutai in 19 years will exceed the expected performance of 14% -16%. The company’s cash flow is healthy and stable, and its capacity construction is steadily advancing to help release future performance.The company generated net cash flow from operating activities of 240 in the first half of the year.87 trillion, +35 ten years ago.82%, of which cash received from sales of goods increased by 25 per year.19%, an increase of 2.25pct, cash flow is healthy and stable.The company’s advance receipts continued to improve at the same time.5.7 billion yuan, up 7 from 19Q1.66%, mainly due to the second quarter’s early acceptance of the second half of the payment.In terms of capacity building, the company completed the production of base 无锡桑拿网 wine4.53 Initially, the output of Moutai base wine was 3.44 For the first time, the output of a series of wine-based wines1.09 is the earliest. We believe that production and construction at this pace is expected to reach 5 in 2020.6 Statutory production capacity, compared with 18 years (3.7 preliminary) promotion 51.3%.The expansion of production capacity also provides high value-added and foundation for the company’s future performance. Profit forecast: The company is expected to achieve revenue of 910 in 2019-2021.34/1181.80/1477.25 ppm, an increase of 17 in ten years.92% / 29.82% / 25.00%, net profit attributable to mother 440.66/596.05/767.61 ppm, an increase of 25 in ten years.18% / 35.26% / 28.78%, corresponding to 35.08/47.45/61.11 yuan.According to the calculation of EPS in 2020, the company is given a 30-fold estimate with a target price of 1424 yuan and a space of more 淡水桑拿网 than 40%. It maintains the company’s “strongly recommended” investment rating. Risk reminders: food safety risks, macroeconomic downside risks, and direct management advancement is less than expected.